Another tight race this year belongs to the Best Actor category, where Freddie Quell is pit head-to-head against Abraham Lincoln. If this were a real battle, I’d wager on Quell and his tendency to go for the legs, but in this contest, the battle is a bit harder to call. Both Lewis and Phoenix are notoriously anti-Hollywood (in the publicity sense) and neither really has much more to prove. Maybe Washington sneaks away with a surprise win for his portrayal of an alcoholic drug abuser, but the best bets are on these two:
Daniel Day Lewis — Lincoln:
Odds on: First, he’s probably the best actor living right now. And, he has cobbled his own shoes, carved a canoe out of a tree, and confined himself to a wheelchair for so long that he damaged two ribs [source]. And now, he has played Lincoln. The Academy loves performances of historical figures, and it’s safe to say there are few larger figures in our history than Lincoln. Lewis is the best part of this film and the reason why it’s gotten so much acclaim, so giving him the Oscar is probably a solid bet. In tandem, Lewis has given a superb and believable voice to the mythical Lincoln, whose voice was never recorded. The softness of his voice is hardly a barometer for the passion that exudes itself through Lewis’ movements and forced restraint of his arms.
Odds off: At the same time, Lewis grabbing a third Oscar would be historic. No other actor has won three Best Actors. Nicholson has three, but one is a Supporting nod. Lewis has given many fine performances in the past and probably could have won at least two more Oscars – particularly for In the Name of the Father and Gangs of New York. Perhaps his portrayal of Lincoln gets him a third, but is his win for There Will be Blood too close? And, would the Academy rather honor another rather reclusive, methodical performer?
Joaquin Phoenix — The Master
Odds on: Phoenix might have given my favorite performance of the year in The Master, but it’s unclear whether is assessment of the award’s season as “the worst-tasting carrot” and “bullshit” will cost him a statue. On the one hand, it might differentiate him as a thespian who works for the art and not for the acclaim – something suggested by the few roles that he chooses and the mostly stellar effort he puts in to them. While he might not go completely Method, carve a canoe out of a log, cobble his own shoes, or refuse to leave his wheelchair between takes, Phoenix embraces each of his roles and dives deeply into each character. This might work in Phoenix’s favor considering the Academy’s desire that less promoting of one’s self be done prior after the nominations are announced. In fact, the Academy “has laid down fairly restrictive rules, limiting the number of appearances that the talent behind a given film can make once the nominations are announced Jan. 10.”
Odds off: While wanting to be out of the spotlight might work in his favor, but it took Sean Penn five nomination to score his first win. This will only be Phoenix’s third. Something else working against Phoenix is – like Chastain – the movie he’s nominated for. The Master is probably the most polarizing film of the year, and – if you haven’t heard — there are a fair number of Scientologists in Hollywood. Even though the film is a loose, loose interpretation of Hollywood, it might be difficult for voters to disassociate the hyped up conjecture from the content.
