The most wide-open of races this year might be for Best Director. There’s been a lot written about the snub of Affleck — despite his virtual sweep of everyone other awards circuit, so the traditional barometer for winner is bunk. Even Ang Lee might snag a win for his seamless pairing of CGI and live-action in Life of Pi. The darkhorse here would be Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild, the cutest film of the year with the an amazing performance by the nine-year-old Quvenzhanie Wallis, but one whose metaphor comes in the form of a giant sledgehammer. If I were putting money down, these are the three I would focus on:
Steven Spielberg — Lincoln
Odds on: He’s the most successful director in Hollywood history. He also made a movie about one of the most famous presidents in history, and the film itself seems like another vehicle for Daniel Day Lewis to take home his unprecedented third award for Best Actor. Also in Spielberg’s favor is that he’s not David O. Russell. Russell has proven himself as an accomplished director and brought about a new reputation with The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook; however, his previous reputation might continue to haunt him. You can’t blow up (rather an understatement) at actors and actresses on set, have it caught on camera, and become Hollywood’s golden boy – especially when you’re up against Spielberg.
Odds off: We’ve seen this before. His films are touching and his nomination perfunctory. Consistency shouldn’t win Oscars – unless they’re long overdue. Something with more gravity working against Spielberg is that Lincoln is carried by Lewis. His performance is absolutely stellar and completely overshadows most everything else in the film. Ask Paul Thomas Anderson or Martin Scorsese how casting Daniel Day Lewis impacts your chances of winning Best Director. Admittedly, There Will Be Blood is much much better than Lincoln, Gangs of New York, and constantly vacillates between the #1 and #2 spots on my Best of All Time list, but the same theory applies: Lewis carries films; directors are secondary.
David O. Russell — Silver Linings Playbook:
Odds on: Silver Linings Playbook is deeply layered but simply and sweetly told, which makes it accessible to the masses as well as fodder for those film-thinkers. The importance here is that Russell’s style is the most similar this year to Affleck’s. The Academy might just want to atone for the snub by awarding the shtick. Silver Linings is also the best ensemble in this year’s running for Best Director. Tommy Lee Jones and Sally Field certainly aren’t slouches, but, again, they’re second to Lewis. While Lawrence might beat out Chastain for Best Actress, her performance is aided by a solid supporting cast, which might just be a testament to the director for reigning everyone in.
Odds off: See issue above about Russell’s past transgressions. Being similar to Affleck might also bite him if the Academy prefers something antithetical to the style they rejected.
Michael Haneke — Amour
Odds on: I am biased here. I enjoy (as much as you can) all of Haneke’s films and think he’s the closest thing to a high-art Hitchcock that you’ll find. He’s meticulous without being graphic; devastating without being gratuitous. His substitution of dialogue and silence for soundtrack and score brilliantly emphasizes every moment and slows life down for a couple of grueling minutes. The skill he exhibits outshines everyone else in this category and makes it impossible to look away, regardless of the discomfort you’re welcoming.
Odds off: Amour is nominated for Best Foreign Language Film – and will probably win, which means that Haneke probably won’t walk away with two Oscars.
