Sally Field — Lincoln
Odds on: As Mary Todd Lincoln, Field earnestly portrays a first lady rife with intelligence whose aware of the world and her position in it. Above all, she is the President’s wife, a support system for him, but not much else in the public eye. Spielberg draws an interesting parallel between the current first lady (and Hillary Clinton two before her) and Mary Lincoln, showing a private impact that exists in both, but emphasizing her influence and position in the public eye. What might benefit Field the most is her turn as a strong woman in a time when women weren’t thought as such, much less given the right to vote.
Odds off: Field has already won two Best Actress Oscars. A Supporting nod to honor the twilight of her career would be a nice gesture, but the Academy usually makes one gesture a year. That gesture is in another category.
Amy Adams — The Master
Odds on: Her performance in The Master made Adams my early pick to take home the statue this year – and if I were handing out awards, she would still be. In her favor is that she’s been thrice nominated before this, which usually pushes the voters to honor the nominee. If it doesn’t work out for her this year, you can put money on her fifth nomination leading to Oscar gold. Beyond politics, Adams is characteristically superb as Peggy Dodd, the wife of charismatic cult leader Lancaster Dodd. This role commands presence. She’s pit on the stage with Philip Seymour Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix, two alpha male characters in The Master and two attention-drawing performers in real life, but she’s never lost in the scenery.
Odds off: She’ll probably fall to the same fate of Hoffman, Phoenix, and Anderson – three players in a film loosely linked to L. Ron Hubbard and Scientology. It’s not Zero Dark Thirty, but its criticisms are just as polarized. Viewers and critics alike weren’t sure to love it or hate it, praise it or pan it, read it or watch it. It’s a beautiful film with multiple themes running through it. It’ll be appreciated more and more as the years go by – like many Paul Thomas Anderson films. But it won’t score Adams a win this year.
Anne Hathaway — Les Miserables
Odds on: She’s the Jennifer Lawrence of the Supporting category this year. She’s young, easy on the eyes, pretty solid in her past roles, previously nominated, and easy to promote. Moving a bit past the spectacle of the Oscars, she is the most memorable part of Les Miserables – which is saying something considering the movie is on the long side of two-and-a-half hours, and Fantine only takes up about fifteen minutes of it. Her unflinching, tear-filled, vocal-strained rendition of “I Dreamed a Dream” is powerful and touching, and it’ll win Hathaway her first statue.
Odds off: Sally Field could pull an upset if voters get going on the Lincoln train, which isn’t unheard of. Spielberg has been nominated many times, but his biggest victories have come with retelling histories, Saving Private Ryan and Schindler’s List. It’s not beyond imagination to think that he’ll snag an Oscar away from the most recently favored Ang Lee, slow the momentum currently generated by Argo, in addition to watching Lewis walk away with his third Best Actor Oscar.
