Tommy Lee Jones — Lincoln
Odds on: His gravelly voice delivers some of the best lines in Lincoln, and he too could benefit from a Lincoln surge. Jones hasn’t since 1994 (The Fugitive), but he’s racked up another Oscar nomination since then (In the Valley of Elah) and given some other solid performances. Jones might be due here.
Odds off: The biggest thing going against Tommy Lee Jones is…
Robert De Niro — Silver Linings Playbook
Odds on: First, De Niro hasn’t won an Oscar is 32 years. 32. Years. Those who are only familiar with De Niro from his venture into slapstick comedies like Analyze This, Analyze That, and the Meet the Parents trilogy (?) may not be surprised by his lack of acclaim, but he was once the young Vito Corleone. He was Jake LaMotta – and 32 years might be too long. If the Academy awards a seemingly-overlooked performer this year, it’ll be DeNiro. Regarding Silver Linings Playbook, DeNiro plays the OCD, quixotic Pat Sr. solidly as a character that you need to investigate to determine whether he’s on or off his rocker. A role like this could easily be phoned in; DeNiro does no such thing.
Odds off: Lincoln train.
Christoph Waltz — Django Unchained
Odds on: By far the best performance in the Supporting category comes from Django Unchained. Paired with Tarantino again, Waltz veers from the sadistic Nazi, Hans Landa, and becomes the benevolent / capitalist dentist cum bounty hunter King Schultz, who helps Django find his kidnapped and enslaved wife. Waltz has secured his place as a solid, reliable actor whose appearances on screen are often the best parts of films — even films like Carnage, The Green Hornet, and Water for Elephants.
Odds off: Waltz won his first statue only a few years ago, this familiarity plus another win for a Waltz / Tarantino film might feel stale to the Academy who tries (often in vain) to shake things up. Something else working against Waltz is the release date of Django. It wasn’t released wide until Christmas, many screeners weren’t distributed to critics and other industry fellows alike, which means that the chance to view, assess, and vote for Django was more limited than other films.
