We are a little less than two weeks from the Oscars, and some of the biggest races are being run between two (maybe three) strong candidates. So, who you got for Best Actress?
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Lining’s Playbook
Odds on: At twenty two, Lawrence has already garnered two Oscar nominations, with the first one coming for her portrayal of Ree, the poverty-stricken girl in backwoods methamphetamine’s country in Winter’s Bone. This second nomination comes on the heels of her turns in X-Men: First Class and The Hunger Games, two films that satisfied both audiences and critics. In short, Lawrence could easily be the next “It” actress. She’s young, she’s pretty easy on the eyes, and she has range. We thought Carrie Mulligan might have stolen this title a few years ago after An Education, but she petered off and starred in Wall Street 2. Lawrence on the other hand has tackled some diverse roles, and she plays each one of them well, from mutant to depressive to penurious resident of District 12.
Odds off: She’s young and she has a lot of time ahead of her. Kate Winslet, who was nominated five times before winning, fell into this trap. While they haven’t won yet, other young nominees like Carrie Mulligan, Anne Hathaway, and Amy Adams have had their names linked to “a lot of time left.” If Oscar wants to function on seniority, Lawrence might need a third performance up her sleeve to knock bring home that statue. Another con might be the media blowing out of proportion Lawrence’s “I beat Meryl” line, as well as her notation that acting is “stupid.” Regardless of the fact that Lawrence was addressing the fame and obsession with celebrity, every trade’s blurb – the Hollywood Reporter included – had some sort of headline with a variation of “Jennifer Lawrence thinks acting is stupid.” Should this sway voters? No, but it could. Just ask Sean Penn why it took so long to win, why Mickey Rourke ultimately lost for his performance in The Wrestler, and why Joaquin Phoenix keeps shooting himself in the foot.
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Odds on: Chastain, too, is young, easy on the eyes, and has given some fine, Oscar-nominated performances – most recently in last year’s The Help. The edge that Chastain might have here is that she’s struggled through the industry a bit more until she had her coming out party in 2011, while Lawrence is relatively new all around (if you don’t the MTV promo for My Super Sweet Sixteen). Hollywood likes those that earn their stripes, so this might work in Chastain’s favor. Something else to consider is her character in Zero Dark Thirty. I have nothing against Lawrence’s Tiffany, whose meticulous mood swings take some acting chops, but Chastain’s Maya is, first, a strong, asskicking, isolated female lead, and two, an adaptation of a real person, something that Oscar voters recently love – nearly as much as characters afflicted with some sort of illness, be it physical mental, or emotional. Eight of the last nine Best Actor / Actress awards have gone to those who have portrayed real folks, so if the Academy continues with this trend, you can bet on Chastain taking home this year’s honor.
Odds off: She was in Zero Dark Thirty, a movie whose government-fueled controversy became nearly as polarizing as The Master. Whether you’re in the Bret Easton Ellis camp that decries Kathryn Bigelow as successful only because she’s a woman in a traditionally male role, John McCain’s belief that the events in the movie are fabricated, or an admirer of the chronicle-style action film, it’s difficult to find the gray area. This might, in the end, shift the votes to Lawrence, just in case the voters refuse to align themselves with manufactured political ideologies.
In truth: I’d love to see Emmanuelle Riva take home this year’s Oscar for Amour, a film in the Romantic style that everyone should see before they convince themselves that growing older comes easily.
